Issue 2

In Australia regional policy has been rejuvenated at both the Federal and State government levels. This paper critically assesses these new policies in the light of the previous regional policy experiences of the Central Western Region of New South Wales. The Central West experiences reviewed are the Top-Down, heavily resourced, growth centre phase of the 1970s and the Bottom-Up , lightly resourced programs, such as the Country Centres Projects, of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The key lessons to emerge from these experiences are that a lack of resources for the implementation of regional policy, a lack of finance and a lack of principals to undertake investment have been serious impediments in the past. There is also a need for ongoing assessment, evaluation and monitoring of regional policy initiatives. It appears, at this point of time, that whereas some of the lessons of the past have been at least partly addressed, the new phase of regional policy is too lightly resourced 1d there is an absence of an appropriate mechanism for evaluating its effectiveness. Consequently the new phase is at serious risk of not meeting expectations, with the resulting ss of political interest and possible an early demise.

TOM MURPHY, GREG WALKER

Page Number - 119

Since 1979, the Chinese economy has experienced a widening economic disparity between the Eastern and Western Regions. One important factor contributing to the increased inter-regional disparity is direct foreign investment (DFI). This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the impacts of DFI on the regional economic development of China. Regression analysis indicates that the impact of DFI on economic growth was stronger in the Eastern (coastal) Region and very weak in the Western (far inland) Region, hence reinforcing the inter-regional economic disparity. Many other factors also contributed to the widening gap.

HAISHUN SUN

Page Number - 133

This paper illustrates how the environment can be included in a macroeconomic framework. For illustrative purposes a Keynesian framework is considered. The application of a modified Keynesian framework illustrates the choice of economic instruments such as taxes and interest rates to be based not merely on the equilibria between national income and expenditure, but also on the role of the environment in attaining such equilibria. Central to the framework considered are the concepts of "the assimilative capacity of the environment", and an "environmental cost function".

DODO J. THAMPAPILLAI

Page Number - 149

This paper builds on extensive recent research on trans-Tasman migration, which is embedded in a matrix of gross interregional migration in Australasia. It is found that, in a descriptive sense, the largely free trans-Tasman movement fits in well in the patterns of interregional migration. There is a common Jabour market in that both trans-Tasman and intra-Australian migration flows respond to interregional differences in income and employment opportunities. There are, however, statistically significant differences in coefficients of migration determinants between intra-Australian flows and trans-Tasman flows. Hence, borders do matter and trans-Tasman migration is not internal migration in an econometric sense. It is argued that these border effects are related, among other factors, to differences in tax and public expenditure policies between the two countries.

JACQUES POOT

Page Number - 159

This paper explores the link between poverty and religious affiliations in Northern Ireland within the context of the two broad Christian religious groups, Roman Catholic and Protestants. Poverty is measured by reference to established poverty lines and equivalence scales are used to allocate poverty on an individual and family basis. The results are then decomposed on the basis of religious affiliation. A probit regression model is used to test more formally the determinants of poverty in Northern Ireland. It uses variables reflecting household structure and religious affiliations as some of the explanatory variables. The results of the probit model indicate that catholic women and unskilled catholic have a p-eater probability of suffering from poverty than others in Northern Ireland.

GRAINNE COLLINS

Page Number - 183

Between February 1978 and February 1993, the average monthly unemployment rate for South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland was above that for the nation as a whole, while the average unemployment rate for Victoria and New South Wales was below the national figure. An important question is whether developments in Victoria which have beneficial effects on Victoria's unemployment problem also have long-term beneficial effects on the unemployment problems of its two high unemployment neighbours, Tasmania, and South Australia, and similarly for New South Wales and Queensland. If helpful spillovers do in fact occur, how significant are they? In particular, is it that Tasmania's and South Australia' s unemployment problems are mitigated more, in the long term by favourable developments in Victoria rather than by unemployment reducing developments which occur within their own borders and similarly for Queensland and New South Wales? The purpose of the paper is to investigate these and other related questions with-the help of a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model estimated from monthly data for the period-under consideration. The broad finding of the paper is that the "big-neighbour effect" on Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland is highly significant and ma y well outweigh the beneficial effects on unemployment of developments which are targeted at the three high unemployment states themselves or which occur accidentally within their borders.

N. GROENEWOLD, A. J. HAGGER

Page Number - 197